Mutton, as an essential category of meat in China's dietary structure, occupies a unique position in the consumer market. With the improvement of living standards and the shift in consumption concepts, the demand for mutton in the market is showing a trend towards diversification and quality enhancement. The International Food Exhibition has observed that imported mutton, with its unique advantages, has been steadily increasing its market share in China, profoundly influencing the domestic mutton market landscape. Accurately grasping the dynamics of the imported mutton market is of great significance to industry practitioners, investors, and policymakers.

I. Review of the Development of the Imported Mutton Market

Over the past decade, the scale of China's imported mutton market has undergone significant changes. In the early years, imported mutton was mainly concentrated in the high-end catering market, catering to the demand for high-quality mutton from specific consumer groups. With the development of cold chain logistics and the gradual liberalization of trade policies, imported mutton began to enter the mass consumer market. From 2015 to 2023, the overall trend of China's imported mutton volume was upward, with an annual growth rate fluctuating between 5% and 15%. However, in 2024, there was a noticeable decline in imports, from 433,600 tons in 2023 to 366,500 tons, a decrease of 15.47%. This change marks the entry of the imported mutton market into a new adjustment phase.

II. Analysis of the Current Status of the 2024 Imported Mutton Market

1. Changes in Import Volume and Growth Rate

The decline in imported mutton volume in 2024 is the result of a combination of factors. On the international front, major mutton-exporting countries such as Australia and New Zealand have experienced a reduction in sheep inventories due to abnormal climate conditions, leading to decreased export volumes. Domestically, with the scaled development of the domestic sheep farming industry, the production of domestic mutton has been increasing year by year. Between 2020 and 2024, the average annual growth rate of domestic mutton production was about 3%, effectively filling market demand and reducing reliance on imported mutton.

2. Analysis of Import Source Country Structure

New Zealand and Australia have long held the top two positions as sources of China's imported mutton. In 2024, the combined share of these two countries exceeded 80% of China's total imported mutton volume. However, it is worth noting that in September 2024, China imported mutton from Madagascar in Africa for the first time. Although the initial import volume was only slightly over 900 kilograms, it is expected to reach 20,000 tons per year within 3 to 5 years. This indicates that the structure of China's imported mutton source countries will gradually diversify.

3. Price Fluctuations and Market Impact

In 2024, the overall price of imported mutton remained relatively stable, but there were certain differences across seasons and source countries. Influenced by supply and demand, the price of imported mutton in the first half of the year was slightly higher than in the second half. Price fluctuations had a chain reaction on the domestic mutton market, causing domestic mutton prices to fluctuate as well, which further affected the behavior of breeders and consumers.

III. Analysis of Factors Affecting the Imported Mutton Market

1. Policy Factors

Trade policies have a significant impact on the imported mutton market. In recent years, free trade agreements signed between China and major mutton-exporting countries have reduced tariffs on mutton imports, promoting an increase in import volumes. At the same time, China's inspection and quarantine policies for imported meat have been continuously improved, strengthening the supervision of the quality and safety of imported mutton and safeguarding consumer rights.

2. Economic Factors

Domestic economic growth and the improvement of residents' income levels directly affect the demand for mutton. During periods of rapid economic growth, residents' willingness and ability to consume mutton increase, while the opposite occurs during economic downturns. Additionally, fluctuations in international exchange rates can also affect the cost and price of imported mutton.

3. Social Factors

The increasing health consciousness of consumers and changes in dietary habits have had a profound impact on the mutton market. With the growing pursuit of healthy eating, the demand for high-protein, low-fat mutton has increased, driving the development of the imported mutton market. Moreover, social and cultural activities, such as traditional festivals and local food festivals, also stimulate mutton consumption.

4. Technological Factors

The development of cold chain logistics technology is an important support for the development of the imported mutton market. Advanced cold chain technology ensures the quality of mutton during long-distance transportation and storage, expanding the sales scope and market share of imported mutton.

IV. Impact of the Imported Mutton Market on the Domestic Industry

1. Impact on Domestic Mutton Prices

The influx of large amounts of imported mutton has put certain downward pressure on domestic mutton prices. Especially when the price of imported mutton is low, domestic mutton prices also have to be adjusted accordingly to maintain market competitiveness.

2. Impact on Domestic Sheep Farming Industry

The development of the imported mutton market has prompted the domestic sheep farming industry to accelerate its transformation and upgrading. Breeders have begun to focus on breed improvement, enhancement of breeding techniques, and brand building to improve the quality and market competitiveness of domestic mutton.

3. Impact on Domestic Mutton Processing and Sales Enterprises

For mutton processing and sales enterprises, imported mutton brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, enterprises can use imported mutton to enrich their product variety and meet the needs of different consumers. On the other hand, they also face more intense market competition.

V. Forecast of Future Development Trends of the Imported Mutton Market

Forecast of Import Volume and Growth Rate

It is expected that within the next five years, China's imported mutton volume will fluctuate between 300,000 and 500,000 tons. With the development of the domestic sheep farming industry and the stabilization of market demand, the growth rate of imported mutton will tend to stabilize.

2. Trend of Diversification of Import Source Countries

In addition to traditional sources such as New Zealand and Australia, the volume of mutton imports from Africa and South America will gradually increase, leading to a more diversified structure of import source countries.

3. Changes in Market Competition Landscape

With the intensification of market competition, imported mutton brands will place greater emphasis on quality and brand building. Domestic enterprises will also increase their efforts to promote domestic mutton. Market competition will shift from price competition to quality and brand competition.

VI. Conclusion

The changes in the 2024 imported mutton market are the result of the combined effects of domestic and international factors. Despite the decline in import volume, imported mutton still holds an important position in the domestic market. In the future, with the changes in the market environment and the development of the industry, the imported mutton market will show a more diversified and competitive trend. Relevant enterprises and practitioners should closely monitor market dynamics, actively respond to challenges, and seize development opportunities.

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Source: WorldFoods

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